The above chart is just one of the very many fascinating parts of a post from The Oil Drum dealing with the latest results of the Wikipedia Megaprojects endeavor.  This is a continuing effort to gather all possible information about oil production expected to come from significant new oil fields in the foreseeable future.

I see this graph as a general road map of the future, not an “accurate” picture.  The reasons, as the post discusses in far more detail, is that there is always a tendency for new oil field projects to become delayed.  This trend has recently been exacerbated by the lack of available rigs and personnel for developing new fields.

Additionally, as fields get closer to development their yields become known with much greater certainty.

It is likely that some of the production projected for 2008 - 2010 will be pushed back into the 2011 - 2015 time frame.  For example, start up of the Kashagan field that is supposed to produce well over 1 mb/d was recently postponed from 2010 to 2013, and I would not bet on it happening then.

To put these numbers in perspective, keep in mind the following:

1. Annual decline in production from existing fields is currently running +/- 4 mb/d.  Some analysts believe declines are increasing, perhaps at an increasing rate. These declines are net of new oil produced from old fields due to greater and enhanced recovery efforts spurred by higher prices.

2.  New oil “demand” is running in the 1 - 2 mb/d per year range.

3.  There will be some additional production from smaller fields that are not included in the megaprojects data.

4.  All of this will be adjusted up or down by global political events.

Posted in Categories: Commodities, Contributor, External Research.

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