GM Volt Will Change History

Details of GM’s plans for the first-ever production model plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) were discussed in a report in Monday’s Financial Times. The car is still scheduled for 2010 delivery.  Now we know that it’s 400 pound lithium-ion battery will have a 40 mile range and will be recharged on the move by a 4 cylinder gas engine which GM says will let the vehicle get about 150 miles per gallon.

I suppose the engine cuts in automatically when the battery gets down to a certain amount of remaining power.  But if GM were clever enough to let the driver choose when to re-charge via the engine, some drivers might well get nearly infinite miles per gallon simply by driving less than 40 miles before recharging via the electric plug.  No doubt many drivers could easily do that.

I’d bet the Volt will be a very popular car especially if oil prices spike higher after 2010, as I suspect they will.  I think people will love refueling their cars at home at night and they will love the quiet ride.  GM is seeking government subsidies, confirming estimates that the revolutionary power plant will be too expensive for average buyers.

My advice to GM (they haven’t called yet): price it high and they’ll get all the exotic car early adopters they can supply.  Government will not be needed.   A friend of mine has already put his name on the waiting list and he’s somewhere over number 25,000.  I doubt they’ll make more than that the first year.

GM estimates 300,000 - 500,000  PHEV’s will be on the road by 2015.  (SQM fans note: that’s 200 million pounds of lithium batteries.) This is clearly not enough cars to make any noticeable dent in global oil demand.  It might save 300 million gallons of gas a year, which is about 7 million barrels or maybe 20 kb/d.  And that is by 2015.

The ironic reality may be that just as the future car that can free us of oil dependency makes its appearance, the world will be suffering from the worst oil shortage in history.

Here’s is the full FT report:

GM set to bring Volt electric car to Europe

By Bernard Simon in Toronto

Published: August 18 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 18 2008 03:00

General Motors is planning to rebadge its Chevrolet Volt electric car as an Opel or Vauxhall to bring it to Europe as part of the US carmaker’s plans to expand the model range of its highly anticipated new vehicle.

GM is so encouraged by the development of the Volt that it has begun work on other similar vehicles.

Bob Boniface, the Volt’s design director, said several other models were at the scale-model stage of development. The Volt design studio, which employs close to 50 people, is being expanded to cope with the increased work.

One of the follow-up models will be badged as an Opel for sale mainly in continental Europe and as a Vauxhall for sale in the UK. GM is also looking at producing different types of vehicles to the Volt, a mid-sized sedan.

The Detroit carmaker has staked its reputation on the Volt, heavily promoting each stage of the car’s development since a concept version was displayed last year. The redesigned production version is due to roll off the assembly line in late 2010.

The Volt and its derivatives will share many components, including a 5ft-long 400lb battery, enabling GM to achieve economies of scale.

Over the past decade carmakers have increasingly used a single platform as the basis for a variety of vehicles as a way of speeding up development and holding down costs.

GM says the Volt’s lithium-ion battery will have a range of at least 40 miles with a minimum life of 10 years. The car will be recharged by plugging it into a normal power socket or, when it is in motion, by a four-cylinder internal combustion engine. Petrol consumption is estimated at 150 miles per gallon.

Toyota also plans to unveil a plug-in car in 2010. Unlike the Volt, it will be driven both by the battery and the petrol engine. Toyota has said its design will cost far less while delivering almost the same performance.

GM said last week that it would choose the Volt’s battery supplier before the end of the year. Two groups led by South Korea’s LG Chem and A123Systems of Boston are vying for the contract.

Frank Weber, who heads the Volt project, said the batteries would have enough power. The biggest challenge was maintaining the cells’ stability. “Batteries are like human beings, they like room temperature,” he said.

GM has yet to disclose the retail price of the Volt but is lobbying for some form of government subsidy to bring the car within reach of the average Chevrolet customer.

Electric vehicles are expected to have limited mass-market appeal in their early years. Robert Bosch, the world’s biggest automotive parts supplier, estimates 3m petrol-electric hybrids and 300,000-500,000 electric vehicles will be in operation worldwide by 2015.

Posted in Categories: Commodities, Contributor, Eurozone, External Research, UK, USA.

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